the model and its makers
ARK Investment Management LLC (CIK 0001697748) manages $15.07 billion in assets across 197 positions as of Q4 2025 (13F-HR filed February 11, 2026), anchored by the ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK). Tesla has been ARKK's largest or second-largest holding since 2018. ARK's price target methodology makes Tesla's autonomous vehicle business — which does not yet exist as a commercial product — the primary driver of its valuation.
what ark published
On June 11, 2024, ARK Invest published its open-source Tesla valuation model as an Excel workbook — a 5,000-run Monte Carlo simulation projecting Tesla's enterprise value and share price by 2029. Tesla's stock closed at approximately $170 on the publication date. The model was released as part of ARK's "Big Ideas 2024" research series.
Median of 5,000 Monte Carlo runs
More than Apple + Microsoft + Nvidia combined
| Scenario | 2029 Price | Return from $170 | Robotaxi Launch | 2029 Revenue | Enterprise Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull Case | $3,149 | +1,752% | 2025 ✗ missed | $1.23T+ | $8.27T+ |
| Expected Case | $2,617 | +1,439% | 2025.5 | $1.23T | $8.27T |
| Bear Case | $2,020 | +1,088% | 2026.5 → on track to miss | ~$800B | ~$6T |
Source: ARK Invest Tesla Valuation Model (June 11, 2024). Robotaxi launch dates from "Valuation ASP Tables" and "Monte Carlo Single Simulation" sheets.
$1.23 trillion in five years
ARK's $1.23 trillion total revenue projection for 2029 is the sum of multiple business lines that do not yet exist as meaningful commercial operations. The robotaxi / FSD rideshare business alone accounts for $766 billion — 62% of the total — from a service that has not launched commercially as of February 2026. For context: Apple's current annual revenue is approximately $380 billion. The $1.23T Tesla target is 3.2× Apple.
Source: ARK Invest Tesla Valuation Inputs sheet · Tesla Example Valuation sheet (June 11, 2024). Segment breakdown is approximate; robotaxi revenue is explicitly stated at $766B. Non-robotaxi segments estimated proportionally from total model output.
Apple Inc. — the world's largest company by market cap for much of the past decade — generated approximately $391 billion in revenue in fiscal year 2024. ARK's Tesla model projects Tesla generating $1.23 trillion in 2029 — over 3× Apple's current scale, at a company whose current revenue is $97.7 billion. This would require Tesla to add more than $1.1 trillion in annual revenue in five years, primarily from a service that does not yet exist.
launch date: 2025
ARK's entire thesis depends on Tesla launching a commercial robotaxi network. The model embeds a specific assumption: the bull-case robotaxi launch was 2025. The bear case: mid-2026.5. As of February 2026, Tesla has not launched a commercial robotaxi service available to the general public. The bear-case launch window is closing.
ARK's model assumes Tesla launches commercial robotaxi service in 2025 (bull) or 2026.5
(bear). Without commercial robotaxi revenue, the $766 billion segment — 62% of projected
2029 revenue — does not materialize. Without that segment, the $2,617 price target
collapses to a fraction of its value. Tesla has disclosed in its 10-K that Full Self-Driving
remains under active NHTSA investigation and that the timeline for commercial FSD deployment
is subject to regulatory approval. No 10-K has committed to a commercial robotaxi launch date.
The bear case robotaxi launch window (mid-2026.5) expires in approximately
5 months from today. Every quarter of delay pushes the $766B revenue ramp further
into the future, compressing the time to generate the scale required for a $8.27T enterprise
value by December 2029.
| Assumption | ARK Model | Status (Feb 2026) | Revenue Risk if Wrong |
|---|---|---|---|
| Robotaxi commercial launch | Bull: 2025 · Bear: 2026.5 | Not launched | $766B segment at risk |
| Tesla autonomous miles / fleet scale | Millions of vehicles in network by 2027 | No public fleet deployed | Revenue ramp assumption broken |
| Regulatory approval (NHTSA/DOT) | Assumed obtained by launch date | Active NHTSA investigation ongoing | Critical dependency |
| Optimus humanoid robot revenue | Included in 2029 revenue stack | No commercial sale to date | ~$25B segment at risk |
| Bitcoin as balance sheet asset | Included in model inputs | Tesla holds Bitcoin (confirmed 10-K) | Minor vs. revenue assumptions |
a bear case that requires 11× your money
ARK's "bear case" for Tesla by 2029 is $2,020 per share — a return of approximately +1,088% from the June 2024 publication price of $170. In ARK's model, the worst-case outcome still requires Tesla to deliver more than 11× the investment return in five years. The model's probability distribution is structured so that the bear case is not actually bearish relative to most conventional valuation frameworks.
In some of ARK's 5,000 Monte Carlo runs, the model produces negative
electric vehicle gross margins — Tesla losing money on every car sold. These are an
emergent output: under Wright's Law cost dynamics, if manufacturing costs fall more slowly
than Tesla's average selling prices under competitive pressure, per-unit margins can go
negative. These are not directly specified as inputs — they arise from the interaction
of cost, volume, and pricing assumptions across simulation runs.
The revealing finding: sample runs with EV gross margins of −23.5% and −38% still produce
share prices of $2,854 and $2,003, respectively. Deeply negative car economics don't collapse
the share price — because the model's enterprise value rests on robotaxi software revenue,
not automotive margins. The thesis is effectively binary: if robotaxis launch at scale,
the car-selling economics become secondary. The model includes a "probability that robotaxis
launch" parameter, but the named bear, expected, and bull cases all assume launch —
they differ in when (2026.5 vs. 2025.5 vs. 2025), not whether.
| Metric | ARK Bear Case | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2029 share price (bear) | $2,020 | +1,088% from $170 publication price |
| Implied enterprise value (bear) | ~$6T | ~21% of current US GDP |
| EV gross margins (some runs) | Negative | Tesla's actual FY2025 auto gross margin: ~17.8% GAAP (~15.6% excl. ZEV credits) — still far above model's negative-margin runs |
| Annual CAGR to hit bear case | ~63.5% | No $100B+ company has sustained this rate for 5 years |
| Tesla deliveries required (some runs) | 43M vehicles / year | Global auto market: ~90M vehicles / year total |
a pattern of misses
ARK's Tesla price targets have consistently overshot reality by large multiples. When previous targets are not met, ARK publishes new targets without conducting a formal post-mortem on the prior methodology. The $2,617 target is the third major public price target ARK has published for Tesla.
Note: ARK has not published a formal post-mortem on prior Tesla price targets that were not met. The methodology across all three models is similar: the robotaxi / autonomous revenue assumption drives the majority of value in every case. When the robotaxi assumption is delayed, the prior model's failure does not invalidate the new model — it is simply re-dated forward.
Year One: What 2025 Required vs. What Happened
The $2,617 model was published June 11, 2024, with 2025 as the bull-case robotaxi launch year and the first full forecast period. FY2025 is now complete. Every major year-one assumption missed.
| Model Assumption (for 2025) | Required | FY2025 Actual | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Robotaxi commercial launch (bull case) | ✓ Launched by end of 2025 | No commercial robotaxi service exists | ❌ Missed |
| Tesla revenue trajectory (63.5% CAGR path) | Growth from ~$97.7B FY2024 base | $97.69B — essentially flat year-over-year | ❌ Missed |
| Tesla net income | Growth trajectory from ~$7.0B FY2024 | $3.79B — declined 46% from FY2024 | ❌ Missed |
| Tesla EV delivery growth | Growing delivery volumes | Declined for the second consecutive year | ❌ Missed |
| FSD regulatory progress toward L4 | Advancing approval pathway | NHTSA investigation ongoing; no Level 4 approval | ❌ Missed |
| Optimus commercial revenue | Early-stage deployment beginning | Zero commercial revenue from Optimus | ❌ Missed |
| Robotaxi window still open (bear case) | Launch by mid-2026.5 (bear case) | ~4 months remain in bear-case window as of March 2026 | ⚠️ At risk |
Sources: Tesla FY2025 10-K · ARK Tesla Valuation Model (June 11, 2024) · NHTSA public records · ARK 13F-HR Q4 2025 (CIK 0001697748)
peak to reality
ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) peaked at approximately $156–158 per share in February 2021, with Tesla as its largest holding at approximately 10–12% of the fund. From that peak, ARKK declined approximately 75% by late 2022 — a drawdown exceeding the 2008 financial crisis decline of the S&P 500. As of 2025–2026, ARKK trades significantly below its 2021 peak, still down approximately 55–65% from its all-time high.
Data: approximate ARKK closing prices. ARK Innovation ETF (NYSE Arca: ARKK). Feb 2021 peak: ~$156. Late 2022 trough: ~$32. Data for 2025–2026 is approximate.
| Date | ARKK Price (approx.) | Tesla % of Fund | Event |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2021 (peak) | ~$156 | ~10–12% | Fund AUM ~$27B · Tesla at $800+/share |
| Dec 2022 | ~$32 | ~8% | −75% from peak · rate hike cycle |
| Jun 2024 (model pub.) | ~$50 | ~8% | ARK publishes $2,617 Tesla model |
| Feb 2026 | ~$55 | ~7–9% | Tesla FY2025 net income −74% vs FY2023 |
| 2021 peak → today | −60% to −65% | — | ARKK investors remain significantly underwater |
the rise and the reckoning
37 quarterly 13F-HR filings from Q4 2016 through Q4 2025 document the complete arc of ARK's assets under management. Total AUM across all ARK funds peaked at $53.74 billion in Q2 2021 — then fell 80% to a trough of $10.93 billion by Q3 2024. As of Q4 2025, AUM stands at $15.07 billion, still 72% below peak. At ARK's standard 0.75% expense ratio, management fees totaled approximately $403 million annually at peak — continuing throughout the decline.
| Period | Total ARK AUM (all funds) | Est. Annual Mgmt Fee (0.75%) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2016 | $0.27B | ~$2M | Early stage · NY HQ |
| Q4 2019 | $3.96B | ~$30M | Pre-pandemic baseline |
| Q2 2020 | $9.30B | ~$70M | Pandemic-era retail surge begins |
| Q4 2020 | $37.59B | ~$282M | ARKK price peaks Feb 2021 at ~$156 |
| Q1 2021 | $50.34B | ~$378M | Peak investor inflows |
| Q2 2021 | $53.74B (peak) | ~$403M/yr | Absolute AUM peak — rate hikes begin 2022 |
| Q4 2021 | $33.08B | ~$248M | −38% from peak as rates rise |
| Q2 2022 | $16.91B | ~$127M | −69% from peak · ARKK at ~$42 |
| Q4 2022 | $14.35B | ~$108M | −73% from peak · ARKK at ~$32 (trough price) |
| Q4 2023 | $16.89B | ~$127M | Partial recovery · $2,617 Tesla model published Jun 2024 |
| Q3 2024 | $10.93B (trough) | ~$82M | −80% from peak · AUM nadir |
| Q4 2025 | $15.07B | ~$113M | 197 positions · HQ: St. Petersburg, FL |
ARK ETFs charge a 0.75% annual expense ratio across all funds (confirmed in N-CSR annual reports, CIK 0001579982). At peak $53.74B AUM, ARK collected approximately $403 million/year in management fees. Investors who held through the peak-to-trough decline paid these fees continuously while experiencing losses of 80% or more on total ARK AUM. The fee structure did not decline proportionally with returns.
ARK has filed SC 13G disclosures (>5% ownership) for dozens of small-cap companies simultaneously, including: Archer Aviation (7.2%), Nano Dimension (8.0%), Exact Sciences (7.8%), Kratos Defense (7.3%), Roku (5.1%), DraftKings (5.2%), and others (2022 filings, CIK 0001697748). When AUM declines force liquidation, ARK's selling itself moves illiquid small-cap prices downward. This creates a liquidity trap: forced selling accelerates losses in concentrated positions.
A March 2023 SC 13D filing (CIK 0001820212) discloses that Catherine D. Wood personally invested $1,000,000 in ARK Venture Fund on September 13, 2022 — purchasing 50,000 shares at $20.00/share. As of the filing date, Wood held 65.68% of ARK Venture Fund's outstanding shares (76,127.75 total shares outstanding). She is simultaneously CEO, CIO, and Trustee of the issuer. Source of funds: personal funds. ARK Venture Fund is a closed-end interval fund investing in pre-IPO and early-stage companies — similar categories to ARKK's public holdings. The fund manager controls a majority stake in one of ARK's own funds, creating a direct alignment between Wood's personal returns and her investment decisions across both public and private markets.
Source: SC 13D filed 2023-03-22, CIK 0001820212, EDGAR accession 0000945621-23-000163. Issuer: ARK Venture Fund (CUSIP 04072H107).
what the model assumed
10 anomalies flagged across ARK's published Tesla valuation model, ARK's track record, and newly analyzed SEC filings (13F-HR, SC 13D, SC 13G, N-CSR). All findings are based on primary sources: the ARK Invest Tesla Valuation Model Excel workbook (published June 11, 2024), ARK's prior public price targets, Tesla's SEC filings, and ARK's own EDGAR submissions.
The robotaxi revenue segment ($766 billion by 2029) is not a supplement to the model — it is the model. At 62% of projected total revenue, every quarter of delay compresses the window for the revenue ramp required to support an $8.27T enterprise value by 2029. The bear-case launch window closes in approximately mid-2026. Both launch windows have been missed or are imminent.
The $8.27T is driven by the autonomous vehicle segment being valued at 19× EV/EBITDA — ARK applies a premium multiple appropriate for software businesses, applied to a transportation service that does not yet exist commercially. The automotive segment of Tesla (actual 2025 revenue: ~$78B) receives a far lower multiple. Robotaxi assumptions alone generate approximately $7.3 trillion of the enterprise value.
This structure means the bear case is not testing downside risk — it is testing how much less optimistic the outcome might be. The model's bear, expected, and bull cases differ in when robotaxis launch (2026.5 vs. 2025.5 vs. 2025) and at what scale — not whether they launch. The model includes a "probability that robotaxis launch" binary input, but across the 5,000-run simulation that produces the $2,617 median, launch is the near-universal assumption. Without commercial robotaxi deployment, all three named scenarios are effectively invalidated simultaneously.
For reference: Toyota, the world's largest automaker, sells approximately 10–11 million vehicles per year. ARK's high-scenario simulations assume Tesla outselling Toyota by approximately 4× while simultaneously running a $766B robotaxi network and generating additional Optimus robot revenue.
The structural implication: if robotaxi revenue is removed or delayed, a scenario with negative EV margins and no autonomous business would produce an enterprise value dramatically below the model's stated ranges. The model does not prominently present this outcome — because the named bear, expected, and bull scenarios all assume robotaxi launches; the "probability that robotaxis launch" parameter defaults to near-certain in the published simulation output. The no-launch scenario is not the bear case — it is outside the model's published range entirely. Tesla's actual FY2025 automotive gross margin was approximately 13.6%, already declining from a peak of 28.5% in 2022.
In each case, the primary driver of the miss was the same factor: autonomous vehicle / robotaxi deployment was slower than modeled. Each successive model moves the launch date forward by approximately 2–3 years. The $2,617 model's robotaxi launch assumption is already missing on the bull-case timeline as of February 2026.
The Optimus robot revenue assumption is similarly speculative: Tesla has not generated commercial revenue from Optimus as of February 2026. Humanoid robot commercial deployment timelines are highly uncertain. Including non-existent product revenue alongside non-existent robotaxi revenue compounds the speculative nature of the model's inputs — while presenting output as a "Monte Carlo simulation" that implies statistical rigor.
This structure — where the research analyst and the fund manager are the same entity, and the research subject is the fund's largest holding — is disclosed to investors as a general risk factor in ARKK's prospectus. However, the specific tension between the public price target and the fund's incentive to attract inflows is not highlighted prominently in ARK's research disclosures or model documentation.
ARK Venture Fund is a closed-end interval fund that invests in pre-IPO and early-stage technology companies — the same category as ARKK's high-conviction public holdings. Wood's personal majority stake means her personal financial returns are directly aligned with her investment decisions across both the private fund and the public ETFs. When ARK promotes disruptive technology themes, makes concentrated bets on early-stage companies, or publishes bullish research on technology sectors, the fund manager's personal portfolio is directly affected.
This structure is disclosed in the SC 13D filing but is not prominently featured in ARKK fund prospectus materials. The conflict is structural: the same person who controls investment decisions across ~$15B in public AUM also personally controls a majority stake in ARK's private fund.
(1) Robotaxi: Bull-case launch assumed for 2025 — no commercial service exists as of March 2026. (2) Revenue: The 63.5% CAGR path required growth from the ~$97.7B base — Tesla FY2025 revenue was $97.69B, essentially flat. (3) Net income: Required growth — Tesla net income fell 46% year-over-year to $3.79B. (4) Deliveries: Required growing volumes — Tesla deliveries declined for the second consecutive year. (5) FSD/regulatory: Required progress toward Level 4 autonomy — NHTSA investigation ongoing, no approval pathway established. (6) Optimus: Modeled as beginning commercial deployment — zero commercial revenue generated.
This is the same pattern observed in ARK's prior targets: the core autonomous vehicle assumption is treated as a near-certainty in each model, but the timing slips year after year. The prior $4,000 target (2024) and $2,000 target (2027) both failed for the same structural reason — the robotaxi assumption was re-dated, not removed. As of March 2026, the bear-case window for robotaxi launch closes at approximately mid-2026, roughly 4 months away. No formal revision to the model has been published. Source: ARK Tesla Valuation Model (June 11, 2024); Tesla FY2025 10-K; NHTSA public records; ARK 13F-HR Q4 2025 (CIK 0001697748).
primary sources
All findings in this investigation are derived from primary sources — ARK's published model, Tesla SEC filings, ARK EDGAR filings (3 CIK directories, 37 quarterly 13F-HR filings, SC 13D, SC 13G, N-CSR annual reports), and ARKK fund disclosures. All documents are in the public record.